Operation Epic Fury / The End of US Hegemony in the Middle East

Editor's note: Unwanted advertising popups are now the default on Google Blogger. The Boresight highly recommends installing the free Adblock Plus add-on for your browser to suppress this annoyance and view our content in peace.

27-Mar, 2026: Total loss of 81-0005, E-3G “Sentry” Airborne Early Warning and Control AWACS of the  U.S. Air Force’s 552nd Air Control Wing out of Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma, following Iranian missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

27- Feb 2026: The United States and Israel launched military airstrikes on Iran during daylight hours on Saturday, targeting Iran's leadership. Initial footage from the region shows the US 5th fleet headquarters in Bahrain on fire. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in these strikes.

We also strongly recommend scanning "X" [Twitter] for updates on development, as events are moving so quickly, and also as all traditional media outlets are effectively useless as information sources due to their heavy censorship.

Since events are still evolving, we recommend reading our "The Last Question First; Attacking Iran" writing in the meantime for background.

In response to the U.S.–Israeli strikes, Iran launched widespread ballistic missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, targeting Israel and bases used by the US in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Cyprus, Turkey, and the UAE. The counterstrikes have included all effectively (all) US installations in the Middle East. This is now a regional conflict.

On 3/2/26, three (3) American F-15E fighter jets were shot down in quick succession under mysterious circumstances over Kuwait. All aircrews ejected safely.

As of March 3, 2026, U.S. military casualties with CENTCOM confirming six (6) American service members killed. These numbers will rise dramatically, however.

USS Abraham Lincoln CVN-72.

Iran's strategy is clear. Push American forces away by keeping US facilities under fire, therefore denying them safe basing to launch and resupply. This will become apparent in the coming days/weeks. This will turn US and Israeli operations into a long-range proposition with low sortie rates. 

After 8 days of war, in total, the US and Israel conducted around 4500 strikes across Iran, while Iran retaliated with 3500 vectors, including ~905 MRBMs:

After ~ a week of fighting, two narratives have emerged:

The first is that the US/Israel have established air superiority over parts of Iran. We know this to be true because the US is now switching to JDAM munitions, which means aircraft can fly over their targets. 

The second is that most US bases in the region have largely been made unusable by Iranian strikes. This also appears to be true. Iran took out five (5) THAAD radars in the region, with some of the radar arrays costing upwards of $1.1billion dollors; as a result, there is no longer a warning of incoming Iranian fire.

Heavy GPS spoofing by Iran means GPS-guided munitions like Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) will not hit their targets with 5-meter accuracy. We saw the same thing in Ukraine. The primary backup to GPS for JDAM is an Inertial Navigation System (INS), so accuracy will be down no closer than 30 meters. So lots of bombing with no better than 30-meter accuracy. This also explains the laser designation flashes we see on IDF-CENTCOM press release video of attacks on Iranian launchers and other targets.

Constant reports that the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea has been attacked by drones and/or MRBMs. Also, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) withdrew from combat operations in the Red Sea due to "a laundry" fire on the ship. The exact nature of this fire is unclear.

Iran has used cluster munitions to attack Ben Gurion Airport, where US air tankers operate. Why American planners think these and other basing facilities within reach of Iranian weapons are safe enough to conduct combat operations from is beyond belief. 

Russia is now actively assisting Iran. The manner of this assistance is not clear - likely targeting intelligence.

US air tankers are orbiting over Jordan. These assets and their basing should be primary targets for Iran/Russia.

Here is one information source.

09-Mar, 2026: After 10 days of fighting, Iran/Russia has been able to suppress US-Israeli airstrike capacity by 65 percent. Source. Further reports are that Trump is looking for an off-ramp and his people have made a 2nd overure for a ceasefire.

12-Mar, 2026: U.S. Central Command confirmed the loss of one KC-135, tail numbers 63-8017 and 62-3556, are not receiver-capable KC-135R(RT) variants.

The second tanker involved in the incident managed to return to base:

12-Mar, 2026: Five (5) U.S. tankers were struck and damaged while on the ground at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia during an Iranian ballistic missile strike. According to an official, the battle damage to the tankers was not enough to destroy them, and they are being repaired. Whatever the case, these aircraft are out of the fight. No injuries reported. Source.

 

Iran has Israel and the US on the back foot. Stopping now would only reset everything, and the US-Israel will simply attack again in the future. Iran needs to keep its foot on the gas pedal. Iran/Russia have collapsed the THAAD and Arrow systems, so both US bases in the region and Israel are now free fire "Turkey Shoot" zones for Russia-Iran and Hezbollah. 

This war also proved that "missile defense" is simply unfeasible. Intercept rates were far too low for more modern MRBMs, even with enough interceptor rounds on hand. The war has also shown that Western technology cannot deal with the battle-hardened [Ukraine War] Shaed-136 platforms. 

Iran had far more missiles and drones than Western estimates. Perhaps tens of thousands.

18-Mar 2026: Iran hits an F-35 using an IR seeker weapon. We/ve written in depth on stealth fighters' high vulnerability to heat-signature detection and attack.

21-Mar 2026: Iran attacks Diego Garcia with long-range ballistic missiles. Inverified.

27-March, 2026: Iran damaged/destroyed multiple USAF KC-135 tankers parked on the apron at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia. This list also includes a Boeing E-3 Sentry and a Lockheed EC-130. Some very high-value hardware indeed.

28-March 2026: Confirmation that an American E-3G Sentry was in fact destroyed at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia by Iranian missile/drone fire. 

We expect the Iranians to hit all near-Persian Gulf bases used by US heavy aircraft (tankers/AWACS/Heavy lift transport) to force all of these operations to relocate to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (Azraq), Jordan, and then launch a heavy knock-out blow on Muwaffaq. This would effectively ground all US-Israeli fast jets from attacking Iran.

Another excellent analysis from RUSI. 

03-Apr, 2026: American losses continue to mount:

• 1x F-15E (48th Fighter Wing) — Shot down in southwestern Iran. Pilot rescued; WSO still missing.
• 2x HH-60G Pave Hawks — Hit during a Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) mission and crash-landed across the border in Iraq. Crew reportedly rescued.
• 2x A-10C Thunderbolt II — Shot down and crashed into the Persian Gulf. Pilot recovered. Part of the same CSAR package. A second A-10C was also downed on the same day.
• 1x IDF-AF F-16I may have been downed over Iran. 
• 1x U.S. Army Boeing CH-47 Chinook heavy-lift helicopter destroyed after Iranian strikes on Camp Buehring, Kuwait


Other incidents (past 48 hours):

• KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 10:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
• F-16CJ "Wild Weasel" (F-16C Block 50/52, SEAD configuration) — Emergency squawk 7700 over Saudi Arabia near the Iraqi border around 15:00 UTC; later disappeared from FlightRadar.
• KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 19:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
• Pentagon confirmed that 1,500 sailors and their families have been withdrawn from Naval Support Activity (NSA) Bahrain to Norfolk Naval Base in Virginia.

05-Apr, 2026: U.S. Army aircraft losses to rescue the two crew members of a downed F-15E jet over Iran. Confirmed losses (current tally):

• 1× F-15E Strike Eagle — destroyed
• 2× HH-60 helicopters — damaged
• 1x MH-6 Little Bird — destroyed
• 1× A-10 Thunderbolt II — destroyed
• 2× C-130 Hercules — destroyed
• 1–2× MQ-9 Reapers — destroyed