18-Mar 2015: U.S. looses contact with a MQ-1 drone over Latakia and it appears consistent with images showing wreckage.
10-Feb 2015: UAE first pulls out of air operations on ISIS after the Daesh kills a captured Jordanian F-16 pilot. After the US move SAR (search and rescue) assets closer to the fighting UAE reverses the decision. Jordan may finally send in ground troops. Local population have now turned fiercely anti-Daesh. Lets hope this is the beginning of the end of the Wahhabist (Salafist) fueled homicidal-psychopath rampaging-fantasy called "ISIS." Destruction of all Daesh petro-revenues should be primary. Without money - Daesh withers and dies.
ISIS has been joined by (or being used by) former Ba’ath party members using it for there own purposes. This also explains how ISIS was able to use tanks in combat so effectively – something no one could figure out before. Cutting off all Daesh funding sources (from oil and elsewhere) is key.
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UAE F-16E/F Block 60. Note CFTs (conformal fuel tanks) on either of the fuselage over the basic F-16. This is to to extend combat radius, endurance, and to free-up hard points.
23-Sept 2014: Air strikes on ISIS by the United States, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan begin in Syria. Developing story. Qatar reportedly is playing a support role. [As of 02-Nov 2014 Turkey has agreed to host allied aircraft - or not.] The operation gets a name "Inherent Resolve."
American B-1B bombers and USN Tomahawks were part of the first wave of attacks. USAF/USN tactical aircraft including for the first time the F-22A - followed in the second wave. The B-1B 'Lancers' were diverted from Afghanistan duty. Reportedly 8 civilians - including 3 children – have been killed to date.
24-Sept 2014: There appears to have been a chemical weapon attack by (presumably) Syrian regime forces in the town of Adra (outside Damascus). Video here and here.
After three years of waiting for the West to help, ordinary Syrians have become immensely skeptical about US intentions. God knows where this will end – as the United States has now spearheading an open-ended war in the Middle East. We are not unsympathetic to the ISIS issue -they are homicidal psychopaths that left unchecked - would also have access to petrodollars. We already have a medieval society in Saudi Arabia which has vast amounts of petrodollars (most of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals).
[Above] USAF F-16C over Koboni, Syria 14-Oct 2014, with an ‘armed-reconnaissance’ load out including: 2x external auxiliary drop tanks (inboard stations), 2x GBU-12 laser guided bombs (port wing), 2x GBU-38 GPS guided bombs (starboard), 2x AIM-120C, 2x AIM-9L/M, what appear to be Lantern or Litening class targeting pods (near engine intake) and possibly an AN/ALQ-131 or AN/ALQ-184 ECM pod at the aircraft's center line. The USAF aren't taking any chances with the SyAAF. Kobani has proven a good place to attrit Daesh as ISIS/L has continued to push resources into the towns capture. Expect lots of American sorties if they continue. Good call by CENTOM on this one.
Judging from the list of governments involved - and because these governments are also arrayed against Bashar al-Assad in Syria - we believe there is over a 70% probability that air strikes on ISIS/L (also known as the 'Daesh') in Syria will also (also) encompass strikes on Assad government targets at some point.
The other reason the probability is increasing is that proper ‘Battlefield Preparation’ in Syria remains undone. Improper Battlefield Preparation produces IFF (Identification Fiend or Foe) issues that will collide with the Washingtons strategy to support rebels with air strikes and CAS (Close Air Support) while magically keeping Assads air force (the SyAAF) at bay.
Having opposing air forces flying around in the same airspace is a recipe for disaster.
Assuming the moderate forces to be trained-supplied by the coalition come under attack by Assad airpower – which it will – then what? Give rebels MANPADS? That’s a bad (bad) idea. IFF. A bewildering array of aircraft are now operating (and will operate) over Syria. Coalition and SyAAF aircraft will look similar (read: indistinguishable) to all (all) combatants on the ground (FSyA, Kurds, Assadist, IRGC, ISIS/L) and will even produce very tense moments for coalition aircrews. Every moment your not sure what you're looking at (who your looking at) – could be your last.
Battlefield Preparation: Either way - you have to take out Assads air power just to achieve American objectives with ISIS. We don’t think the Whitehouse, the Washington intelligence bureaucracy, Brussels, or congress - has even recognized (read: discerned) the problem.
An F-15 looks nearly identical to a MiG-29 especially at a distance and at off angles. Even for seasoned combat pilots IFF can be extremely difficult to delineate. The MiGs twin Klimov RD-33 engines will emit notable exhaust soot in when not in reheat (not in afterburner), however to expect ground combatants in Syria to have IFF proficiency approaching a seasoned fighter pilot - is pure fantasy.
Are the Saudis going to fly their Panavia Tornados? It will look just like a SyAAF MiG-23 and especially the Su-24 'Fencer.'
When the Kremlin sits down a figures all this out - we may see Assad be supplied with (far) more dangerous weaponry, and putting allied aircraft at great risk. This could unravel the entire Western strategy. The Kremlin may decide to have Assad push out all opposing elements in Syria? Nothing happens in a vacuum - so the longer the war on ISIS takes the greater probability of unintended outcomes- which are already extremely high.
This whole thing is wide open?
The Turks have launched airstrikes against Kurdish separatists.
[Below] Syria SAM coverage map as of 2009-10. As of 2014 only the SAM networks along the coast and in Damascus remain. Effectively little to no S-200 batteries remain operational. Because coalition aircraft were predominantly non-stealth designs other methods were employed to counter whatever SAM threat remains. Namely traditional EW assets and tactical aircraft carrying anti-radiation weapons like HARM. Having said that the Syrian SAM threat currently over anything but the coast and Damascus is - minimal to zero.
23-Sept 2014: Purportedly footage of the combat debut of the beleaguered American F-22A Lockheed Raptor. It appears to be a FLIR image of the strike by another asset. In what is effectively a PR (public relations) opportunity for Lockheed and USAF, F-22 dropped what appears to be GPS guided SDB (small diameter bombs). Indeed the damage in this footage appear consistent with SDB? Also the building appears to be empty (?) F-22A crews and support personnel finally get "some" combat-deployment experience? At over $400 million per copy the F-22 is the most expensive fighter in history.
ACIG: The USAF/USN tactical aircraft together with UAEAF F-16E, RBAF F-16C/D, RSAF F-15S, RQAF Mirage 2000s, and RJAF's F-16AM are now taking part. USAF A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft are also en route however it is unclean is they are going to be operating in Afghanistan or Syria/Iraq (see further below).
The IqAF, French AF, USAF, USN as well as IRIAF fighters are operating over Iraq. The IRIAF F-4Es of 31st TFS have flown four interdiction sorties against ISIS/L-Daesh infrastructure in Kurdistan province of Iraq in the past several weeks. Also four IRIAF Su-24MKs were used in a dozen of strike missions near Baiji oil refinery and Amerli.Reportidly Pars Aviation MRO Center is now preparing three additional Su-25 attack jets (delivered to the IRGCASF by Russia in July) for IqAF.
[Below] Purportedly footage of coalition attacks in Syria. Authenticity unconfirmed. Looks like helicopters to us:
[Below] From Dayr az-Zawr, Syria near the Iraqi border. Coalition strike in broad daylight. There appears to be little (or zero) anti-air threat.
24-Sept 2014: Reports of ISIS/L-Daesh advance on Syria Kurdish town and indeed have published video taking the town. As a rule we will not post ISIS/L-Daesh promotional video (though it must be collected for analysis and historical/academic use by someone) - however we may post - if their images reveal weaknesses or other detail(s) that we think will assist in ISIS/L-Daesh demise.
[Below] ISIS/L controlled oil fields. This revenue stream will need to be cut. And indeed see link.
24-Sept 2014: [Below] USAF B-1B over Fallujah, Iraq.
26-Sept 2014: British parliament approves strikes on the Daesh in Iraqi but not in Syria.
01-Oct 2014: Iraq new prime minister Abadi opposes Arab strikes in Iraq.
02-Oct-2014: The Turks agree to enter the fighting and to host allied aircraft. Australia also votes to participate. The allied alliance will unravel if strict and limited war goals are not adhered to. As we've stated from the beginning - there is a high probability this war will expand to encompass attacks on Assad at some point.
[Below] Video released by CETCOM showing in flight refueling for USN F/A-18 Hornets and Super Hornets reportedly on September strikes into Syria. The Hornet loadout are a bit strange for Syria as it is MiG-CAP focused (perhaps understandably) but without a AGM-88 weapon? We see a mix of AIM-9X (wingtips) AIM-120C and, AIM-7M/P. Observers have been perplexed by carriage of the older late model AIM-7 SARH rounds (which requires target illumination from Hornet's AN/APG-73). One explanation is AIM-7 is more resistant to ECM than AIM-120. Also it is good to have a variety of guidance techniques to give an adversary more than one kind of problem to deal with. It could also be the USN is attempting to use-up some of their older missile stocks. One aircraft is fitted with what appears to be an AN/ASQ-228 IR targeting pod. We expect to see allied fighters operating with external drop tanks very soon - as the theater of operation(s) is enormous.
[Below] 02-Oct 2014: From Iraq/Syria border:
[Below] 02-Oct 2014: A remotely piloted Predator UAV 'drone' over Kafar Takharim just over 2 mi from the Turkish border (near Idleb). It appears to be armed (typically AGM-114 Hellfire). These drones have been all the rage in recent years and received enormous amounts of attention in the public sphere. The truth is their use is limited to a very narrow operational envelope where they can fly unmolested.
Carrier-ops video from USN dated 04-Oct 2014:
[Below] 07-Oct 2014: Dramatic footage of Kurds fighting ISIS T-55 tank advance in/near the town of Kobani. The Kurdish YPG/PKK seem woefully under equipped? [Update: the T-55 in questions was hit and destroyed by a Allied F-15E]
A bit better here. ATGM and what appears to be a Russian anti-material rifle. Perhaps in the KSVK 12.7 class? Reports that some ISIS fighters appear to be drugged.
USAF B-1B strike [2000 lbs JDAM?] on ISIS in Kobane. As of 08-Oct it appears that CENTOM has stalled the ISIS advance on Kobani? 11-Oct: Very mixed reports now saying ISIS took 2/3 of the city. Allied air power is going to need to do a better job. Were are the vaunted Predator drones orbiting and watching people movements on the ground?
Partial Allied Orbat (Order Of Battle). Some assets are operating in Syria, some only in Iraq, Americans in both.: USN has aircraft carrier George H W Bush (CVN-77) w/Carrier Air Wing 8.
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The CVW-8 includes following units: VFA-15 Valions, F/A-18C
Photo:File
VFA-87 Golden Warriors, F/A-18C (CAG)
Photo:File
VFA-213 Black Lions, F/A-18E/F
Photo:File
VFA-31 Tomcatters, F/A-18E (CAG)
Photo:File
VAQ-134 Garudas, EA-6Bs (CAG)
Photo:File
VAW-124 Bear Aces, E-2C AWACS
Photo:File
HSC-9 Tridents, MH-60S
Photo:File
USAF: al-Dhafra AB, UAE: 1st FW, F/A-22s (Langley AFB Virginia)
48th FW, McDonnell Douglas F-15Es 'Strike Eagle' (RAF Lakenheath)
Photo:File
- 35th Fighter Wing, General Dynamics F-16CMs (Misawa AB, Japan) Anti-radiation 'Wild Weasel' SAM suppression.
Photo:File
7th Bomb Wing. Rockwell B-1B 'Lancer' Low-level penetrator strategic bomber. Dyess AFB (Texas).
Photo:File
France: Rafale EC 3/30 Lorraine
Photo:File
RAF Tornado GR4s Akrotiri Cyprus
Photo:File
12-Oct 2014: City of Aleppo appears close to being encircled by the regime.
17-Oct 2014: Speculation is swirling after Daesh overran Tabqa AB on 25-Aug and captured over 20+ MiG-21s and additional two Ksheesh, with perhaps a dozen L-39s. Flyable examples would be perhaps 1/5th of this number. The big speculation right now is can Daesh (ISIS/L) find the resources to operate any of these? They have Syrians in their ranks that could have the knowledge - or Daesh can hire technical expertise to repair, arm, fly, and maintain.
[Below] This video appeared 23-Aug 2014 showing Assad forces still in control of Tabqa AB. Presumably the bulk of flyable machines were flown out before the base was overrun. A tiny ISIS Air Force is possible - but right now not probable.
21-Oct 2014: SyAAF L-39 hit by rebel ATGM at Aleppo airport.
However the SyAAF is down - but not out. Video from around May 2014:
Below is a never before seen cockpit video of a SyAAF MiG-23MF or ML.
[Below] New photo of SyAAF MiG-29 have appeared. Clear photographs of these aircraft are rare:
Video of SyAAF MiG-25. That the regime is able to keep this aircraft flying is a surprise to western observers. The MiG-25 and the F-15 look similar (read: nearly identical) in the air.
[Below] This video was widely distributed. ISIS/L hill position in Kobani Syria hit by allied air as the Kurds look on (note absence of insensant chanting of "Allahu Akbar"). ISIS/L will not prevail in the face of coalition or US air power. The Daesh as a fighting force on the ground - is doomed.
US-Navy/DOD released video 21-Oct 2014. Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17:
[Below] 21-Oct 2014: Previously never before seen photo of SyAAF MiG-29As
[Below] 28-Oct 2014: Kobani, Syria.
02-Nov 2014: [ACIG] ISIS/L is pushing towards Tiyas Air Base.
[Below] The major concern is if fighting and/or ISIS reaches the antiquities at Palmyra.
03-Dec 2014: USAF F-16C from 77FS/20FW is the first operational combat loss. Pilot KIA. Where it crashed is being withheld.
[Below] 15-Jan 2015: First recorded footage of an American A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft reportedly over Albukamal in the 'Sina'a' district Syria.
- All media found here is for scholarship and research purposes and protected under U.S. Internet ‘Fair Use’ Law -
10-Feb 2015: UAE first pulls out of air operations on ISIS after the Daesh kills a captured Jordanian F-16 pilot. After the US move SAR (search and rescue) assets closer to the fighting UAE reverses the decision. Jordan may finally send in ground troops. Local population have now turned fiercely anti-Daesh. Lets hope this is the beginning of the end of the Wahhabist (Salafist) fueled homicidal-psychopath rampaging-fantasy called "ISIS." Destruction of all Daesh petro-revenues should be primary. Without money - Daesh withers and dies.
ISIS has been joined by (or being used by) former Ba’ath party members using it for there own purposes. This also explains how ISIS was able to use tanks in combat so effectively – something no one could figure out before. Cutting off all Daesh funding sources (from oil and elsewhere) is key.
23-Sept 2014: Air strikes on ISIS by the United States, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan begin in Syria. Developing story. Qatar reportedly is playing a support role. [As of 02-Nov 2014 Turkey has agreed to host allied aircraft - or not.] The operation gets a name "Inherent Resolve."
After three years of waiting for the West to help, ordinary Syrians have become immensely skeptical about US intentions. God knows where this will end – as the United States has now spearheading an open-ended war in the Middle East. We are not unsympathetic to the ISIS issue -they are homicidal psychopaths that left unchecked - would also have access to petrodollars. We already have a medieval society in Saudi Arabia which has vast amounts of petrodollars (most of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals).
With prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia now publicly out of the picture, ISIS/L needed a new revenue stream. Moving to capture oil fields in Sunni areas of Iraq was a logical choice with a nonfunctional al-Maliki government [that was] only interested in sectarian reprisal. This also resulted in large ISIS seizures of US supplied Iraqi military hardware. Saudi Arabia has vigorously denied supporting the ISIS/L. However Saudi history with Wahhabism is a matter of historical fact. The entire region is full of very bad actors.
Containment of Wahhabist-Salafist states who have access to petrodollars - needs to be US grand strategy for the foreseeable future?
Better ISIS military tactics, propaganda apparatus, and other behavior would be consistent with former Iraqi Ba'ath Party members now embedded within ISIS/L ranks?
Containment of Wahhabist-Salafist states who have access to petrodollars - needs to be US grand strategy for the foreseeable future?
Better ISIS military tactics, propaganda apparatus, and other behavior would be consistent with former Iraqi Ba'ath Party members now embedded within ISIS/L ranks?
Judging from the list of governments involved - and because these governments are also arrayed against Bashar al-Assad in Syria - we believe there is over a 70% probability that air strikes on ISIS/L (also known as the 'Daesh') in Syria will also (also) encompass strikes on Assad government targets at some point.
The other reason the probability is increasing is that proper ‘Battlefield Preparation’ in Syria remains undone. Improper Battlefield Preparation produces IFF (Identification Fiend or Foe) issues that will collide with the Washingtons strategy to support rebels with air strikes and CAS (Close Air Support) while magically keeping Assads air force (the SyAAF) at bay.
Having opposing air forces flying around in the same airspace is a recipe for disaster.
Assuming the moderate forces to be trained-supplied by the coalition come under attack by Assad airpower – which it will – then what? Give rebels MANPADS? That’s a bad (bad) idea. IFF. A bewildering array of aircraft are now operating (and will operate) over Syria. Coalition and SyAAF aircraft will look similar (read: indistinguishable) to all (all) combatants on the ground (FSyA, Kurds, Assadist, IRGC, ISIS/L) and will even produce very tense moments for coalition aircrews. Every moment your not sure what you're looking at (who your looking at) – could be your last.
Battlefield Preparation: Either way - you have to take out Assads air power just to achieve American objectives with ISIS. We don’t think the Whitehouse, the Washington intelligence bureaucracy, Brussels, or congress - has even recognized (read: discerned) the problem.
Are the Saudis going to fly their Panavia Tornados? It will look just like a SyAAF MiG-23 and especially the Su-24 'Fencer.'
When the Kremlin sits down a figures all this out - we may see Assad be supplied with (far) more dangerous weaponry, and putting allied aircraft at great risk. This could unravel the entire Western strategy. The Kremlin may decide to have Assad push out all opposing elements in Syria? Nothing happens in a vacuum - so the longer the war on ISIS takes the greater probability of unintended outcomes- which are already extremely high.
This whole thing is wide open?
[Below] Syria SAM coverage map as of 2009-10. As of 2014 only the SAM networks along the coast and in Damascus remain. Effectively little to no S-200 batteries remain operational. Because coalition aircraft were predominantly non-stealth designs other methods were employed to counter whatever SAM threat remains. Namely traditional EW assets and tactical aircraft carrying anti-radiation weapons like HARM. Having said that the Syrian SAM threat currently over anything but the coast and Damascus is - minimal to zero.
ACIG: The USAF/USN tactical aircraft together with UAEAF F-16E, RBAF F-16C/D, RSAF F-15S, RQAF Mirage 2000s, and RJAF's F-16AM are now taking part. USAF A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft are also en route however it is unclean is they are going to be operating in Afghanistan or Syria/Iraq (see further below).
The IqAF, French AF, USAF, USN as well as IRIAF fighters are operating over Iraq. The IRIAF F-4Es of 31st TFS have flown four interdiction sorties against ISIS/L-Daesh infrastructure in Kurdistan province of Iraq in the past several weeks. Also four IRIAF Su-24MKs were used in a dozen of strike missions near Baiji oil refinery and Amerli.Reportidly Pars Aviation MRO Center is now preparing three additional Su-25 attack jets (delivered to the IRGCASF by Russia in July) for IqAF.
[Below] Purportedly footage of coalition attacks in Syria. Authenticity unconfirmed. Looks like helicopters to us:
[Below] From Dayr az-Zawr, Syria near the Iraqi border. Coalition strike in broad daylight. There appears to be little (or zero) anti-air threat.
24-Sept 2014: Reports of ISIS/L-Daesh advance on Syria Kurdish town and indeed have published video taking the town. As a rule we will not post ISIS/L-Daesh promotional video (though it must be collected for analysis and historical/academic use by someone) - however we may post - if their images reveal weaknesses or other detail(s) that we think will assist in ISIS/L-Daesh demise.
26-Sept 2014: British parliament approves strikes on the Daesh in Iraqi but not in Syria.
01-Oct 2014: Iraq new prime minister Abadi opposes Arab strikes in Iraq.
02-Oct-2014: The Turks agree to enter the fighting and to host allied aircraft. Australia also votes to participate. The allied alliance will unravel if strict and limited war goals are not adhered to. As we've stated from the beginning - there is a high probability this war will expand to encompass attacks on Assad at some point.
[Below] Video released by CETCOM showing in flight refueling for USN F/A-18 Hornets and Super Hornets reportedly on September strikes into Syria. The Hornet loadout are a bit strange for Syria as it is MiG-CAP focused (perhaps understandably) but without a AGM-88 weapon? We see a mix of AIM-9X (wingtips) AIM-120C and, AIM-7M/P. Observers have been perplexed by carriage of the older late model AIM-7 SARH rounds (which requires target illumination from Hornet's AN/APG-73). One explanation is AIM-7 is more resistant to ECM than AIM-120. Also it is good to have a variety of guidance techniques to give an adversary more than one kind of problem to deal with. It could also be the USN is attempting to use-up some of their older missile stocks. One aircraft is fitted with what appears to be an AN/ASQ-228 IR targeting pod. We expect to see allied fighters operating with external drop tanks very soon - as the theater of operation(s) is enormous.
[Below] 02-Oct 2014: From Iraq/Syria border:
[Below] 02-Oct 2014: A remotely piloted Predator UAV 'drone' over Kafar Takharim just over 2 mi from the Turkish border (near Idleb). It appears to be armed (typically AGM-114 Hellfire). These drones have been all the rage in recent years and received enormous amounts of attention in the public sphere. The truth is their use is limited to a very narrow operational envelope where they can fly unmolested.
Carrier-ops video from USN dated 04-Oct 2014:
[Below] 07-Oct 2014: Dramatic footage of Kurds fighting ISIS T-55 tank advance in/near the town of Kobani. The Kurdish YPG/PKK seem woefully under equipped? [Update: the T-55 in questions was hit and destroyed by a Allied F-15E]
A bit better here. ATGM and what appears to be a Russian anti-material rifle. Perhaps in the KSVK 12.7 class? Reports that some ISIS fighters appear to be drugged.
USAF B-1B strike [2000 lbs JDAM?] on ISIS in Kobane. As of 08-Oct it appears that CENTOM has stalled the ISIS advance on Kobani? 11-Oct: Very mixed reports now saying ISIS took 2/3 of the city. Allied air power is going to need to do a better job. Were are the vaunted Predator drones orbiting and watching people movements on the ground?
Partial Allied Orbat (Order Of Battle). Some assets are operating in Syria, some only in Iraq, Americans in both.: USN has aircraft carrier George H W Bush (CVN-77) w/Carrier Air Wing 8.
VFA-87 Golden Warriors, F/A-18C (CAG)
VFA-213 Black Lions, F/A-18E/F
VFA-31 Tomcatters, F/A-18E (CAG)
VAQ-134 Garudas, EA-6Bs (CAG)
VAW-124 Bear Aces, E-2C AWACS
HSC-9 Tridents, MH-60S
USAF: al-Dhafra AB, UAE: 1st FW, F/A-22s (Langley AFB Virginia)
- 35th Fighter Wing, General Dynamics F-16CMs (Misawa AB, Japan) Anti-radiation 'Wild Weasel' SAM suppression.
7th Bomb Wing. Rockwell B-1B 'Lancer' Low-level penetrator strategic bomber. Dyess AFB (Texas).
France: Rafale EC 3/30 Lorraine
RAF Tornado GR4s Akrotiri Cyprus
12-Oct 2014: City of Aleppo appears close to being encircled by the regime.
17-Oct 2014: Speculation is swirling after Daesh overran Tabqa AB on 25-Aug and captured over 20+ MiG-21s and additional two Ksheesh, with perhaps a dozen L-39s. Flyable examples would be perhaps 1/5th of this number. The big speculation right now is can Daesh (ISIS/L) find the resources to operate any of these? They have Syrians in their ranks that could have the knowledge - or Daesh can hire technical expertise to repair, arm, fly, and maintain.
[Below] This video appeared 23-Aug 2014 showing Assad forces still in control of Tabqa AB. Presumably the bulk of flyable machines were flown out before the base was overrun. A tiny ISIS Air Force is possible - but right now not probable.
21-Oct 2014: SyAAF L-39 hit by rebel ATGM at Aleppo airport.
However the SyAAF is down - but not out. Video from around May 2014:
Below is a never before seen cockpit video of a SyAAF MiG-23MF or ML.
[Below] New photo of SyAAF MiG-29 have appeared. Clear photographs of these aircraft are rare:
[Below] This video was widely distributed. ISIS/L hill position in Kobani Syria hit by allied air as the Kurds look on (note absence of insensant chanting of "Allahu Akbar"). ISIS/L will not prevail in the face of coalition or US air power. The Daesh as a fighting force on the ground - is doomed.
US-Navy/DOD released video 21-Oct 2014. Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17:
[Below] 21-Oct 2014: Previously never before seen photo of SyAAF MiG-29As
02-Nov 2014: [ACIG] ISIS/L is pushing towards Tiyas Air Base.
[Below] 15-Jan 2015: First recorded footage of an American A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft reportedly over Albukamal in the 'Sina'a' district Syria.
- All media found here is for scholarship and research purposes and protected under U.S. Internet ‘Fair Use’ Law -
I think it's quite clear that US won't be bombing Assad military forces nor does it have the legal backing to do so. But hypothetically, if they did want to, what are the capabilities of Syria's air defense system?
ReplyDeleteI think Russia suspended the sales of S-300 to Syria, but do they posses an older version of the S-300? Can Syria's air defense system cause significant loses to the coalition?
--Xx
If US is only using stealth planes and cruise missiles they might be afraid of Syria's air defence. Otherwise it makes zero sense to use missiles which costs 1.6 million each to shoot at buildings which are already in ruins. ISIL or Nusra anti-air capabilities cannot be more than a few MANPADs which will be a only mild danger to F-16s or similar aircraft. If Syria's S-300 or any other anti-air asset (Mig 25s maybe ? ) manages to shoot down US aircraft in large numbers every country in Middle East will line up to buy Russian anti-air weapons.
ReplyDeleteThe current disposition of Assad’s air defense in unclear to us. We added material on this subject that might enlighten some of this. The SyAAF is woefully outmatched by the USAF. The MiG-25 could frighten a few AWACS folks but Assad would be a fool to tempt fate here and the MiG would not last long. The MiG-25 was possibly only problematic for the IDF-AF incursions. The SyAAF just lost a Su-24MK over the Golan because of pilot carelessness. That said – they’ve been bombing civilians for three years or else be shot by the regime. So if they were captured they’d be considered lucky. - Boresight
ReplyDeleteObrescia,do you have any word on the F-15E that made an emergency landing in Turkey? was it a malfunction or damage by AAA?
ReplyDeleteGood find. The claim is it was hit by ground fire. We're looking into.
Deletehttp://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-joins-anti-isil-coalition-opens-incirlik-for-logistics-ops.aspx?PageID=238&NID=71511&NewsCatID=409
Sorry to bother you again,but do you have any news on the A-10s send to the Middle East? There are news of US Army Apaches striking ISIS positions but no word on the Warthog...
DeleteLooks like the A-10s went to Afghanistan.
DeleteISIL has 30-40 Tanks at most in Kobane, maybe a few dozen artillery pieces. Even without any intelligence from ground, coalition aircraft could neutralize those or force them to retreat. ISIL is attacking mostly on daylight. Tanks and artillery are in the open from the videos we see. Yet they are wasting munitions on so called "command centers" of ISIL. ISIL does not need command centers or logistics centers or any strategic asset like this. If coalition wants to fight ISIL they have to conduct tactical operations.
ReplyDeleteIf ISIS begins to operate their captured planes on the battlefield, it will open the way for the coalition to attack both ISIS jets & Assad's jets that are airborne; negating my earlier comment. The coalition might probably impose a no-fly zone to all non-coalition aircrafts, if an ISIS Air Force comes into shape. I do think both the coalition & the Syrian Air Force can handle an ISIS Air Force.
ReplyDeleteOf course this no-fly zone will open the door for mission creep, which is already happening with the British as they will begin flying reconnaissance over Syria.
--Xx
I will be very surprised if ISIS/L gets any fixed wing aircraft flying. The L-39s would be the easiest to operate and have forgiving flight characteristics. If they get 2 or 3 in the air it would be a miracle. The MiG-21s are a whole other can of worms. The 21 are Mach-2 class aircraft with high landing speeds. They would pose almost zero threat to allied aircraft other than somehow getting close enough due to IFF issues – to somehow to fire a missile. Again, time will tell. What ISIS/L really wants is to operate helicopters rather than fixed wing.
ReplyDeleteThere are persistent reports of ISIS/L giving their ground force fighters powerful drugs (to make them do what they're told). I think the ISIS/L as a fighting force is going to implode - sooner rather than later.
- Boresight