Russian Tactical Adaption : Russo-Ukrainian War

Iran Counterattack On American Military Bases

"All land-based US Expeditionary Forces in Central Command in range of Iran's missile forces are at the mercy of Iranian missile fire. US Expeditionary Forces in Central Command are totally exposed..."

20-Jan 2024: A string of attacks on US bases. US claims of missile interception are unverifiable.

12-Mar, 2022: Reported Ballistic Missile Attack Near U.S. Base in Erbil, Iraq"

Iranian Qiam MRBM
 Iranian Fateh-313 
07-Jan 2020: At 01:30 hrs local time Iran fired from Iranian territory at least ten Fateh-313 short-range ballistic missiles and perhaps five to six Qiam medium-range ballistic missiles at two US bases in Iraq in retaliation for the US killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani days before.
US bases hit were:
  • Ain al-Assad. (housing UAVs, and C-130s).
  • Erbil
03-Mar 2021: New video has been published of the attack on Al-Asad Air Base:

This was followed up with a 107mm rocket attack from Iranian militia elements (Hezbollah) minutes later. The U.S. initially claims no casualties were reported on either base from any of the missile attacks however, soldiers were treated for blast concussion.

That number has since risen from 50 U.S  servicemen to 64 and now the number is over 100.

The US also claimed its C-RAM and Centurion CIWS air defenses downed several of the Iranian missiles, however, there is no evidence for this claim, reminiscent of the false claims credited to the Patriot missiles in 1991 of intercepting Iraqi SCUDs. There is also a second claim from the US that it did NOT attempt to intercept/shoot down incoming missiles - the Pentagon needs to make up its mind on events - we shall see.
Current information: (Information courtesy of ACIG)
  • Ten Fateh-313s targeted the Ain al-Assad AB. Two appear to have missed and fell into the town of Heet, outside Ramadi. Eight remaining Fateh-313 hit Assad AB. Others damaged the control tower, taxiway, and two parked US aircraft.
  • Five to six Qiams MRBM targeted Erbil. At least one of these is claimed shot down by U.S. air defenses - there is no way to verify U.S. claim.
  • No less than five 107mm rockets hit Camp Taji (rural district north of Baghdad) and/or al-Assad, some were claimed shot down by C-RAM and Centurion CIWs, but again, there is no way to verify these assertions by the U.S. presently.
Some Iranian missile hits appear highly accurate. [Below] Missile hits appear to be a straight diagonal targeting line from hit 2 to hit 9. However, hit 1 and 8 do not really look like malfunctions per se, as they are too close to base structural and material assets as well. (From ACIG).
14-Jan, 2020: [Below] New images have appeared of Al-Assad AB. Apparently, U.S. troops at Al-Asad had only 15-20 minutes of warning of an Iranian counterattack strike. Iran warned Iraqi officials before the strike. Missiles hit living quarters.
While we are no friends of the Iranian regime, the precision and material damage inflicted on American installations together with injuries with just a handful of Iranian missiles - should be taken as an ominous warning of what is to come if a major confrontation were to occur between the US and Iran. The Americans are not configured or prepared to operate without air supremacy - something the Iranian mobile rocket and MRBM forces take away. US forces and installations in the region are effectively totally exposed with no (no) defense against Iranian missile fire. 

All (all) US Central Command expeditionary forces in the range of Iranian missile fire would see military material and personnel losses not seen since WWII or the Korean War. Something the US military, its handlers in Washington, and current American political discourse - can not stomach. Most Americans can not even find Iran or Iraq on a map. We have maintained for a long time that against a true peer or near-peer adversary - huge swathes of US "military capacity" are effectively a paper tiger. 

Bottom line: All land-based US Expeditionary Forces in Central Command in range of Iran's missile forces are at the mercy of Iranian missile fire. US Expeditionary Forces in Central Command are totally exposed, overextended, and too expensive. 

Separately a Ukrainian civilian 737-800 airliner was shot down by Iranian air defenses over Tehran the same evening as the attack on American bases, killing all 176 passengers and crew. Reportedly civilian air traffic over Iran was allowed to operate normally - so why Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was engaged is unclear. In all likelihood, it is simply a dreadful mistake linked to compressed timeframes in the fog of war, reminiscent of the USS Vincennes accidental downing of Iran Air Flight 655.

We are no fan is the Iranian regime, however, with the recent publishing of the Afghanistan Papers by the Washinton Post, we have become highly suspicious of US assertions and motives presently, especially with respect to the timing and justification for the killing of Qasem Soleimani by American drones. We shall see.

- All media found here is for scholarly and research purposes and protected under U.S. Internet ‘Fair Use’ Law -


  1. Defense One reported 10 us personnel injured. This new has came approx 10 days after the strike. y

    1. It looks like that number has now increased fivefold - to 50 US servicemen.
      - Boresight
      See link:

    2. That number has now risen to over 100.

  2. Russia has delivered Yak-130 training aircraft to Iran and these aircraft are have been IRAF service at least since Sept 2, 2023 (at least according to Forbes).
    It is suspected that after Iran's deliveries of drones to Russia that have seen use in the Russo-Ukranian war, it is suspected that Russia will be delivering something(s) more substantial than more training craft like the Yak-130.

    How likely might it be that Russia is delivering the Su-35 to Iran?
    Would this mean that a conflict with Iran just became even more dangerous than it might have already been?
    What would Russia do to control Iran's reverse engineering of this craft to prevent Iran from potentially producing replacement parts for the Su-35 the same way they have been able to produce their own replacement parts for some (maybe all) of the F-14?


    1. We shall see if this deal actually materializes. The aircraft in question were apparently suppose to go to Egypt but back-channel opposition from the US reportedly nixed the sale. Iran and the Kremlin are finding themselves on the same side of many issue lately - so we shall see how their relationship develops. I started a new job and its gobbling up my time I use to have to do research. My apologies - so this is the best answer I can give you at the monument.
      There could be an agreement not to produce Su-35 parts however Russia purchased hundreds (if not thousands) of Iran's Shahed-136 - and is now building a licensed version - is my understanding.


Post a Comment