"Well war - wars are competitions. The adversary develops capabilities. Your enemy develops capabilities. And you try to develop your own capabilities to check what he can do to you to be able to, overcome his capabilities." - Andrew J. Bacevich 2008
[Editors note: Developing story. 08-Oct, 2022 General Sergey Surovikin is appointed by Kremlin for forces in Ukraine. He was responsible for the Russian campaign in Syria. This event may spawn a new post. We expect the trajectory of the war to change - yet again]
We were correct about a new phase - however not in its nature. Neither was the US State Department. See here
Although airpower is not the focus of this post - its disjointed nature in Ukraine may have a simple explanation. Russian Aerospace forces may be facing air defense units and ground forces under the direction of a previously unknown and untested new entity called the National Guard of Russia. Please keep reading.
[editor note] Airpower update at the bottom.
A new phase in the war as well as new revelations as to the nature of both belligerents in the conflict has emerged. As of mid-September, the Ukrainian lighting counter-offensive in the northeast has revealed deep participation and direction by the Americans and NATO in providing intelligence, planning, and arming Ukrainian forces. That Ukraine's military is effectively now directly under the direction of the US and NATO. In effect it is NATO.
Indeed NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said on 11-Oct 2022 that a victory for Russian forces in Ukraine would be a defeat for his organization. "Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine will be a defeat of NATO. This cannot be allowed,"
In addition, the Kremlin is holding referendums in the Ukrainian breakaway regions in the Donbas for these areas to become part of Russia. If (when) they pass the Kremlin will say these areas are part of the motherland and now the motherland is under attack from NATO via a Ukrainian proxy. Therefore a general mobilization is likely. The war will no longer be a "special operation" but a war to protect the motherland. NATO needs to throttle out of this conflict - and quickly. It is being geopolitically outmaneuvered and no military solution is possible for the West regardless.
| Separatist LDNR tank flying the 'Novorossiya' (New Russia) flag. LDNR forces are Ukrainian breakaway pro-Russian militias from Donbas. |
The US/NATO/Ukrainian counter-offensive in the northeast has also revealed the nature of the Russian forces that melted away during the attack. They were largely a mishmash of Ukrainian pro-Russian separatist militias called LDNR (Novorossiya) and a newly formed Russian irregular paramilitary secret-police forces of the Russian National Guard Some token remnants of Russian military units were encountered but most had withdrawn and fighting was light.
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| Flag of Novorossiya LDNR forces |
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| Here both LDNR and Russian National Guard elements are represented. Guard units are known to fly the Soviet hammer and sickle |
The Russian invasion of Ukraine also marks the combat debut of this new Russian National Guard.
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| Western observers were perplexed when Russian tanks flying the Soviet Union flag began to appear n Ukraine. Only later would it be revealed these units are hybrid irregular paramilitary secret-police forces of the newly formed Russian National Guard. |
The main Ukrainian thrust was in the northeast and not Kherson. Reportedly the counter-offense gains in the northeast area were lightly defended and fighting was light - with occupation forces simply melted away - so no slow grinding advance by the Ukrainians. Reports differ as to whether the Russian airpower response to the offensive was robust or paltry.
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| Guard units in Ukraine in 2022. What appears to be a re-emergence of a secret-police NKVD-like entity. |
The combat debut of this new Russian National Guard paramilitary also explains reports in occupied areas of terrorized Ukrainian civilians, nonjudicial killing, atrocities, and Russian-supplied tanks flying hammer and sickle flags of the USSR. It all makes sense now.
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| The NKVD under the Soviets was used to control the Red Army. The Russian National Guard appears to have been given the same function today. Russian Guard units hiding in plain sight flying Soviet flags in Ukraine. |
Make no mistake. US and NATO are in a 150 percent undeclared proxy war with Russia in Ukraine.
The trajectory of the war on the ground may largely depend on the disposition of LDNR forces and Russian National Guard units operating in occupied Ukraine. The LDNR consists of Ukrainian pro-Russian separatist militias and armed volunteer groups from self-proclaimed breakaway regions in the Donbas. Russia has supplied LDNR forces with heavy weapons since 2014.
The Russian National Guard was formed in 2016 and reports directly to the Russian presidency. They are not part of the formal Russian military but rather are akin to an internal security force. They are paramilitary units drawn from the Russian Ministry of the Interior (MVD) and act more as a supplement to the police. Not much is known about the exact nature of this new Russian Nation Guard but their role appears similar to political officers and secret police of the NKVD under the Soviets. They apparently have the authority to take command of Russian military units. How much formal military training from a military academy the Russian National Guard has - in combined arms, infantry, armor, artillery, and air defense is unclear. The Russian National Guard is thought to be roughly equal in size to formal Russian military ground forces. Based on what we've seen to date in Ukraine, the future of the Russian National Guard moving forward - is unclear.
Russia and Ukraine share a long border so none of these problems are going away. Every Russian leader since Gorbachev has been alarmed about Western influence and NATO expansion up to its border. Increased US-NATO influence in this war only makes this problem worse - and plays into this concern.
Is the US-NATO really ready to declare war on Russia to address the Ukraine question? No. So why keep arming Ukraine with Western weapons, ammunition, expertise, surveillance, reconnaissance, and intelligence? At some point, US-NATO armaments and influence in the war will be so great (we may have already past that point) that this issue of US-NATO military presents-influence on the Russian border will become front and center. And that we are simply heading headlong into the abyss of an undeclared war with Russia and a general mobilization of the formal Russian military.
Ukrainian LDNR forces are not happy fighting outside the Donbas and there is friction between LDNR and the Russian military.
Weapons Location Radar would pinpoint all artillery, rockets mortars, and HIMARS launch points within 45km of the radar. Especially when used in conjunction with GRAD rockets. There is no way these artillery systems can hide forever - on both sides. Anti-radiation weapons would be aloft and ready on their carriage platforms to fire during HIMARS employment. What is good for the goose is good for the gander. We shall see.
Please see "The Sobering Continues: Russian Invasion of Ukraine" for analysis not triggered by alerts from the US state department as this writing initially was.
Before the counter-offensive, the true nature of this war was unclear to OSINT and the US State Department. This was even though strange flags appearing on tanks had been leaving plenty of clues in plain sight.
Our operating hypothesis:
The true nature of the Russo-Ukraine war was that a NATO-planned and led Ukrainian counter-offensive in the northeast revealed a mishmash of LDNR internal security forces and an untested newly formed Russian irregular paramilitary NKVD-like force of the Russian National Guard. Both of these entities along with token Russian military elements - melted away as Ukrainian forces approached.
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| The role of the NKVD under the Soviets is well documented and beyond the scope of this writing. |
Our operating hypothesis is that it was this entity - the Russian National Guard - that planned and invaded Ukraine in February 2022. It better explains the behavior of invasion forces and also atrocities committed in places like Bucha. To what degree Russian National Guard is controlling Russian military units, airpower, and the overall war effort in Ukraine today - months later - is unclear. One can only hope that its abysmal combat performance and atrocities committed will quickly act as the death knell of this newly formed Russian National Guard - and act to dismantle it. Let us hope so.
The specter of a nuclear weapons escalation path by Russia in Ukraine is currently low - but it is also no longer zero.
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By U.S. Embassy Kyiv | 23 August 2022 | Topics: Alert
"The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens to depart Ukraine now using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so."
Link to Embassy alert here
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| Flag of the Donetsk Republic. Part Novorossiya, a confederation of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics or LDNR. |
We believe the large-scale missile drone attack(s) by Russia was not reprisal for the bridge bombing - but part of a new strategy by General Sergey Surovikin. Expect the Syria playbook used against anti-Assad forces to be applied to Ukraine by the Russians.
11-Oct, 2022: VKS Su-24SMs in action
10-Oct, 2022:
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| Judging from General Surovikin's campaign in Syria, the trajectory of this war will now change |
08-Oct, 2022: 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge linking the Crimean Peninsula to Russia was damaged by an explosion on Saturday. The nature of the explosion remains unclear.
General Sergey Surovikin is appointed by Kremlin for forces in Ukraine. He was responsible for the Russian operation in Syria. This event may spawn a new post.
To date, formal Russian military units along some 1000-km frontlines in Ukraine only numbered ~ 55,000 to 60,000. The rests were a mishmash of lesser-trained Ukrainian pro-Russian LDNR militias and irregular paramilitary RNG (Russin National Guard) secret-police units.
07-Oct, 2022: Starlink outages have begun over Ukraine. It was just a matter of time
The scourge of the Russo-Ukraine War. Small quad-copter drones. Neither side can stop or see these gizmos. Based on the freefall time of their munitions - operate between 70 to 400 feet high.
This means neither US-West-NATO nor the Russian-designed air defense system or East-West WLR (Weapon Location Radar) can see them and warn anyone. This means NASAMS and Flakpanzers - also can not see them - nor communicate their locations or appearance. EW is not effective or can't be employed either.
04-Oct,2022: Good update on the southern front.
03-Oct, 2022: UkrAF Fencer shot down. Southern front.
01-Oct, 2022: Lyman in the east has been retaken by NATO-Keiv.
Ukrainian aircraft was downed Kharkiv region.
Quadcopter toy drones continue to be effective on both sides. Even agaist NATO-NASAMS air defense.
30-Sept. 2022: Russian referendum annex Ukrainian pro-Russian regions of Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Donetsk People's Republic, and the Luhansk People's Republic. These annexations were widely condemned in the West
Video of fighting here
27-Sept, 2022: Somebody blew up the Nord Stream pipelines. Our guess is the Americans. This would be consistent with US statements and other US behavior regarding Ukraine. It is an act of war.
26-Sept, 2022: Su-25 hitting targets. Note the proper use of countermeasures.
Again, when expendable countermeasures are employed - we see little to no hits from surface-to-air missiles on aircraft. In Ukraine, you simply can not conduct manned aircraft combat sorties without proper employment of available/known countermeasures. Something the Russians had to relearn the other day with the loss of another Su-34. The aircraft did not employ expendable countermeasures in the combat area and was hit by some type of SAM. The pilots ejected and the aircraft crashed.
See below. No observable employment of expendable countermeasures is recorded. See here
24-Sept, 2022: Heavy Russian air activity over the eastern front and taking losses from Ukraine or friendly fire:
1x Su-30/34 downed, here
1x Su-34 hit, here
1x Mi-8 claim, Ka-52 claim.
Use your expendable countermeasures else you're taking a big risk. Here this Su-34 runs out of luck and is struck by a surface-to-air missile by either Ukraine or Russian air defenses. We ignore initial belligerent claims - as they're unverifiable. Both pilots successfully eject at playback point 0:13.
23-Sept, 2022: Russian Ka-52 is hit but makes a controlled landing.
Iranian Shahad-136 presumably hit somewhere over Ukraine. Here is another 136 drone (overcast) flying through a hail of gunfire(?) (or faked sound effects). This one hits a target in Odessa. They a released in pairs. One with no "anti-aircraft" sound effects.
19-Sept, 2022: Great example of propaganda. This extended clip shows the T-72B3 tank defeating an ATGM outside of Lysychansk. However other clips of the same scene are cut after the explosion - deliberately not showing the tank is ok. ATGM defeated.
18-Sept, 2022: More decoy use in the Russo-Ukraine war. Both Ukraine and the Russian military are well-versed in their use. The Serbs used decoys very effectively against NATO in 1999.
Russia has employed Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones against NATO-Ukraine elements in the northeast. Iran has acquired vast first-hand experience with the US-NATO military after 9/11 and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. The 136 are about the size of a man and have a long range.
15-Sept, 2022: Su-34 rather leisurely hits target coordinates with drag retarded FAB-500 munitions. The location and date are unknown.
"Russian air defense active over Valuyki, Belgorod region. Perhaps a NATO Kherson-type diversion op.
13-Sept, 2022: This HIMARS attack takes well over a minute from the first rocket leaving the tube. Counter battery fire mission is going to be an issue if the Russians can use a weapon with enough range. Can BM-30 Smerch perform a counter-battery fire mission would be the question?
11-Sept, 2022: Dramatic MANPAD vs Frogfoot combat footage. Wait for it. Lead aircraft take a hit in (near) the stern from 5'oclock low. Some smoke is seen afterward from the aircraft, but that Frogfoot is going to live to fly another day. Where and when these engagements were captured - is unclear. MANPAD type is unknown.
09-Sept, 2022: The situation has been clarified to a degree. The Ukrainians have created a 15km bulge in the Russian line south of Kharkiv in the east. See here
04-Sept, 2022. New wreckage of downed Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 attack drone - Kherson region.
Excellent analysis with Michael Koffman of the current situation.
31-Aug, 2022: Ukraine has launched an offensive operation in the south. The size and depth of the operation remain unclear. Whether this is the main thrust of a diversionary operation is also unclear. Take note of the sound - that indicates the artillery munitions being employed in Ukraine.
Again the Ukraine offensive in the south is a confusing mess - with all manner of claims and counterclaims. Even new TB2 attack videos have (re)appeared. Some sources show Ukrainian southern gains others show imminent collapse. Providing a mishmash of images that can not be verified is pointless. Live Universal Awareness Map (“Liveuamap”) shows no Ukraine inclusion in the south as of 9/3.
Below: This has appeared claiming the mystery solved as to the Ukraine MiG-29 employing American AGM-88 in Ukraine. We give AGM-88 in Ukraine a slightly longer honeymoon than the Bayraktar TB2 had before the HARM is countered by the Russians via decoy radio-spectrum emitters.
Unconfirmed image of UkAF Su-27 carrying two AGM-88. Looks similar to an old image of a green-nosed UkAF Su-27P (same aircraft?) over Kramatorsk in mid-April 2014. We shall see.
Works Cited
Savage, Patrick. The Russian National Guard: An Asset for Putin at Home and Abroad. American Security Project, 2017. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep19806. Accessed 14 Sep. 2022.
- All media found here is for scholarly and research purposes and protected under U.S. Internet ‘Fair Use’ Law -
Hello Boresight;
ReplyDeleteI've read a few of your articles and I disagree with a lot of your assessments, especially with the use of this Ritter guy. Why would one town completely unravel the Ukrainian defenses? Also why should we take the claim that Russia will soon conquer all of Ukraine uncritically when that was said about the Cauldron? That the Ukrainian army would be encircled after the fall of Izium and everything east of the river would soon fall.
But that isn't what has happened, instead Ukraine has performed increasingly bold behind the lines sabotage. Especially in Crimea. Now it looks like an offensive in Kherson is underway, with a telagram video with an injured russian talking about failing defense lines.
Also I've heard rumors of Ukrainians being trained on F-16's and patriot systems? Do you have any plans on covering this?
Thank for writing. Sorry for the late reply - it software hasn't been informing of new comments for some reason (which its suppose to).
DeleteWe always try and write something different then other sources that simply parrot what comes out of most news outlets, defense press, the Pentagon or the State Department. Our experience in the lost wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in 2003 mean these outlets mostly cheerlead - rather than report or unearth.
As far as Ritter, I don't know what he's referring to precisely or where he is getting his information from. But he is dissenting voice similar to Andrew J Bacevich about US policy in Ukraine and elsewhere. Ritter has a pretty impressive resume. He was United Nations arms control expert, worked under Schwarzkopf in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and Iraq, on WMDs, as a United Nations weapons inspector, from 1991 to 1998. Time will tell is Ritter is right, wrong, or something in between.
The logistical support required for Ukraine to operate F-16 or Patriots isn't there. A MiG-29 with its FOD doors is much more robust operating from dispersed locations than an F-16. Ukraine already operates S-300 so Patriot is at best an incremental difference. Both may be vulnerable to anti-radiation weapons.
What happening in Ukraine now could be permanent or a phase. Its difficult to predict. I cant find an expert who hasn't been surprised by events in this war - on both sides. Expect something unexpected.
With respect to you disagreements - just ask - and I'll explain.
- Boresight
For some reason I can't seem to Publish something.
DeletePatriot missiles are not so much an improvement as they are an quantitative increase in the number of systems that can be deployed. This would be bad for Russia considering how effective Ukrainian SAM's have been in intercepting Russian planes and missiles.
DeleteIndeed this can be seen with how Ukraine has been conducting SEAD missions using HARMS's, this is not done unless fighter sweeps are rare or non-existant. It's also seen with Ukraines new gains, they've really pushed the Russians out of Kharkive and and are advancing into Izium.
If Russian airpower was able to project power into Ukrainian airspace then this Ukrainian counteroffensive shoulda been devastated and destroyed by air power. However we see now little evidence of Russia's lines stabilizing yet. If Russian airpower can't push into limited post soviet stock IADS how can they push into a NATO reinforced IADS.
okay now it's working
DeleteThe problem is western logistics to maintain and operate western systems. Having said that most experts say HIMARS are in fact being operated by "US contractors" and not the Ukrainians. The biggest issue for Russian air power in Ukraine in my academic view has been - friendly fire. We saw this in Georgia in 2008. Half of Russian aircraft losses in 2008 were due to fratricide. It is also important to point out that the Bayraktar TB2 had a short exciting career over Ukraine. As we strongly argued in "Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Lessons Never Learned" the Bayraktar is no match for modern air defense systems.
DeleteUkrainian SEAD appears to have been effective under some conditions. However the Russian have anti-radiation capacity also - so were not sure how Ukraine air defenses and counter battery radar continue to operate "freely" as being portrayed on social media. They probably aren't. Also rumors are that commercial quad drones (on all sides) are now having increasing problems operating over the battlefield because of better EW.
The big question right now is what is the disposition of LDNR forces is occupied areas. Who precisely is the Ukraine army fighting and advancing against. A mishmash of Ukrainian LDNR, pro-Russian separatist militias, armed volunteer groups, Chechens and other factions or regular Russian troops? My sense is more of the former than the latter. What has gotten lost in all this started as a civil war in the Donbas since 2014 (Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians). The Russians role seem to have morphed into a support role with heavy weapons, aircraft but let Ukrainian LDNR do all the heavy fighting. Think of Vietnamization strategy in Indochina during the Vietnam War. Adopted by the Americans to reduce American involvement by transferring all military responsibilities to South Vietnam. The results however were mixed at best and eventual failed.
This could be on reason lines stabilized and advance were tiny on the pro-Russian side for many weeks. If this is a maximum effort by the Russians remains unclear. To be sure there has been no general mobilization in Russia - unlike Ukraine. It would seem Russian military just isn't the mighty Red Army any longer. The silver lining is that the Russian Army is no threat to NATO.
- Boresight
Could you source which experts claim that 'US contractors' are the ones operating HIMARS, I don't particularily buy that considering HIMARS is essentially a modified truck. The expensive part are the missiles, while the rest is likely easily repaired.
DeleteThis also seems to be a common talking point in Russia, that they aren't fighting Ukrainians their fighting NATO soldiers occasionally followed by the claim of 20,000 dead NATO SOF.
This seems to be an attempt to limit the embarrassment of loosing to a group considered 'inferior' in some Russian circles, and instead their loosing against a superpower.
Also I'm not sure how much of an Issue logistics could be as a lot of the aid is focused on putting Ukraine onto NATO standards in terms of munitions. Training for a Patriot system would take a while but Logistics may be similar to an M777 or M113.
Also as to Russian SEAD, it looks to have been largely unsuccessful especially as 7 months into the war Russia has failed to target C&C after the 'decapitation' strike early on. And also the HARMS's set a new precedent, if they can get those to work on a Mig can they get JADAMS? or AMRAAMs? This could give Ukraine the edge in the air, especially as Russia seems unable to bring it's full strength to bear.
And finally as to infantry compositions, this could point to heavy casualties among the Russians earlier in the war. Even with the deployment of the 3rd army corps it could be that Russia would not have the trained manpower to hold it's gains. And any mobilisations would take time to train and equip even basic infantry, while Ukraine has been mobilising for half a year.
Most of your comments are discussed or addressed in: "The Sobering Continues: Russian Invasion of Ukraine"
DeleteHIMARS is complex system to operate. It need sophisticated US-NATO surveillance, reconnaissance and intelligence capabilities far beyond Ukrainian capacity - to employ.
Source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOSIyau6f1E&t=0s
The M777 stops working with ~ 10 days of heavy use w/o logistics to repair it. The Ukrainians have said so much.
SEAD is tough to employ (for both sides) when you have own air defense system operating in-theater and moving about. The risk of fratricide is high and likely has occurred on the Russian side before AGM-88 appeared. Now UkrAF and their AGM-88 can accidentally kill their own AD too.
The Russians don't fight like US-NATO. They don't attempt to establish air supremacy (which obviously includes SEAD) as a perquisite to other operations.
The Russian thankful bungled to early part of the invasion with units outrunning their logistics, driving into landmines, including fratricide of entire units - combined with Ukrainian resistance.
Russia/Ukraine share a long border so none of these problems are going away anytime soon. Every Russian leader since Gorbachev has been concerned about Western influence and NATO expansion up to its border. Increased US-NATO influence in this war only make this problem worse - and plays into this concern.
Is the US-NATO really ready to declare war on Russia to address the Ukraine question? No.
At some point US-NATO armaments and influence in the war will be so great that this issue will be front and center. That we are in a undeclared war with Russia.
Hello Boresight!
ReplyDeleteJust checking in to see how you are doing. The Rosgvardia you mention are a militarised internal security force meant to deal with 'terrorists' and 'rioters', they were sent in on day one in the belief they'd be necessary to control the populace once the Zelensky fled Kyiv. However kharkiv wasn't just Rosgvardia or LDPR rabble, but also included the first guards tank army. Signified by Ukraines capture of a T-90M there. 1st guards tank army are probably committed to the defense of Lyman as well.
I don't see Russia's mobilisation as turning the tides really, there are reports the conscripts are being sent with less than a weeks training. These troops won't be able to withstand or push back determined mechanized assaults, and are likely just a logistical burden
Source: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-untrained-russian-draftees-reach-the-front
Hi Anonymous. Yes. This conflict has been extremely complex to get visibility into. I found this link that claims the Russian only had since February 55k to 60k formal military troops to cover a 1000-kilometer front.
Delete" Murakhovsky says that Russia's invasion force was 140 BTGs, of which >50 were not part of the Ground Forces. He said no more than 2/3rd could be kept on the front lines at a time, so they had 55-60k servicemen on the 1000 km long front throughout the war."
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578665670195437569?s=20&t=3CI59E8qHUMyfgBrRVsrZA
So it appears the Russian were operating the 'economy of forces model' in Ukraine? The Kremlin assigned a new commander yesterday (General Sergey Surovikin, who was responsible for operations the Syria) to control all forces in Ukraine. Agreed, sending in untrained troops isn't going to change anything.
It will be interesting if Surovikin changes tactic to leverage more air power. He was an air force commander. A concerted SEAD and rear-area/rail interdiction campaign, could turn the tide (?) I don't know. The Russian still have armies they draw from in the East, Central and South districts I believe. Lets see where LDNR are sent. Let hope the RNG (Russian National Guard) is withdrawn completely from Ukraine. The last thing you need is forces without formal academic war college training in combined arms, infantry, armor, and air defense - having the authority to commandeer formal Russian military units - as the RNG does. This will never work. It must not be allowed.
As Kiev forces advance - they are susceptible to having bridges knockout behind them. What works for the goose - works for the gander.
Good to hear from you
Hello Boresight;
DeleteI find it strange the Russians never conducted SEAD in the first place, even if air dominance isn't the Doctrine of the Russian Air Force SAM's make it hard for CAS or CAP to be done.
Do you think the Russians have the pertinent training in SEAD or DEAD to actually silence Ukrainina AD?
Also I don't know why you claim Rosvgardia are leading the operation as opposed to merely being used to shore up the numbers. As to the 'only 50-60,000 Russian soldiers' claim, how credible is it? Who is Mr Murakhovsky?
Although If this is the result of Attrition on the 180-220K professional Russian soldiers over the course of 8 months then it's more believable.
Hi Anonymous,
DeleteWith respect to the Russian National Guard either running or interfering in the war - it is simply an operating hypothesis. Rosvgardia report directly to the Russian presidency. My academic resources say that they indeed have the authority to commandeer and control/direct Russian military units. That is very dangerous and we don't know to what existent that has occurred. Until we know this - a cogent argument can be made that Rosvgardia has interfered with Russian military tactical of strategic ops in Ukraine - something absent from Georgia and Syria. And done so without a war-college education of combined arms, infantry, armor and air defense. To be sure Rosvgardia are going to be the ones engaged in atrocities like Bucca.
As far as the rest goes I would simply look at both Georgia 2008 and Syria in 2015 (pre-2016-Rosvgardia formulation). The Russian did engage in a concerted bombing campaign that broke the back of US/Qatari/Ankara supported Jihadists that included flattening Aleppo. Syria was honeycombed with Jihadists tunnels also. Presumably the Russian handled SEAD and enemy drones very effectively. MANPAD threat in Syria was high. A SEAD campaign is largely impossible against MANPAD so bomber altitudes were over ~ 15,000 ft.
I'm simply looking at what changed from Georgia and Syria and Ukraine.
Again good to hear from you
- Boresight