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August 10, 2024 - Ukraine is conducting a large-scale operation that has produced a large incursion into Russia.
History instructs that when a Western army (for which the Ukrainian Armed Forces now are) enters Russian territory in any serious way - that entry marks the beginning of the end - for that Western army. The more serious the incursion - the more certain its defeat.
The exquisite irony that this is happening at Kursk - is even more salient.
[Above] The first images appeared of ex-NATO F-16 AM in Ukrainian, in early August 2024.
New York Times 04-Aug, 2024:
"President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said on Sunday that his army had received a first batch of F-16 fighter jets. The long-awaited arrival of the Western-supplied jets should bolster the country’s defenses, although Kyiv appears to have received too few of them so far to have an immediate impact on the battlefield.
“F-16s are in Ukraine. We did it,” Mr. Zelensky said in a video posted on social media networks showing him at an air base addressing and meeting Ukrainian pilots. He was standing in front of two F-16s, and two more flew overhead as he spoke. At the very least, the arrival of the jets will bolster Ukrainians’ morale, which has been dampened by months of slow, but steady Russian advances on the battlefield and devastating attacks on the country’s power grid." Source.
Again the impact of a handful of these aircraft remains unclear. Please see our writing on this subject here. With Russian air defense regularly downing AGM-88 HARM missiles fired by Ukrainian fast-jets aviation in the past - we can not see how changing the launch platform from the MiG-29 or Su-27 to the F-16 demonstrably alters these outcomes.
The answer is - it doesn't.
So what will the Ukraine do with the F-16?
They can likely hide them from the Russians on the ground with dispersal and by using underground bunkers - but once the F-16 is in the air - that is where they will be in the greatest peril. Ukraine might try to disrupt VKS FAB employment on the frontlines - however, Russia has air superiority there and Russian air defenses have also proven extremely lethal.
It also remains unclear if the avionics have been altered on these F-16s to facilitate the Soviet/Russian artificial horizon format. It can be dangerous for any pilot unfamiliar with the differences - especially when moving from one format to another as Ukraine pilots would have had to do.
Our best guess is the handful of aircraft will mostly be used in the western parts of Ukraine to intercept drones and to act as PR. They will also become primary targets for the Russians.
We shall see...
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You've left out how Russian Mig-29's or at least their engines have almost zero lifetime left on their airframes whereas the F-16's still have half a decade left. But more to the point this is only the first delivery of F-16's with 80+ pledged. Airframes is less of a limitation than training time, meanwhile the omission of the use of western ordinance like Aim-120D's or potentially JASSM (cruise missiles have been very effective against high value russian targets this war) is very odd.
ReplyDeleteSo to is the omission of French pledges of Mirages by the end of this year,.
Already two weeks ago, a Su-34 was destroyed 50 miles from the frontline with his pilot; some claimes have been a long ranged kill via Aim-120D while others have pinned it on poor Russian maintenance and stressed airframe lifetimes.
Meanwhile the claims that any western army is destroyed if they enter Russia, seems like cope as historically Russia overran it's smaller neighbours with no where near the trouble their having now.
This war very could signal the end of Russia as a great power, instead becoming a Chinese vassal reliant on North Korean arms.
We have no idea about Su-34 losses. For every loss (whatever the reason might be) there are hundreds of sorties were the VKS is hitting their targets with colossal glide-FABs. Ukraine (and NATO) is loosing the war badly. There absolutely zero evidence that Ukraine or F-16 have been involved in any air-combat other than flying in the eastern half of the country against disposable drones.
DeleteUkraine (and NATO) is loosing the war badly. It is just like we described it would be.
DeleteThe Ukrainians are a lot more familiar with Soviet machinery and how to keep it operating than new "exotic" delicate Western hardware and engines. They're keep those old MiGs and Flankers running.
DeleteHow is NATO losing the war? Not a single NATO troop has been committed, and what material has sent to Ukraine has only be done so in minute amounts while also being cold war stock. And even then vehicles like the Bradley and Challenger were noted as being heavily more survivable than their soviet counterparts.
DeleteAlso while the use of Glide bombs has been useful for Russia, they can only really hit the frontlines safely as any closer risks heavy aircraft losses as we saw earlier this year.
However the major point is, without new engines (which are only made by Russia) Ukraines flanker fleet will cease to be airworthy, even Russia's own fleet has been reported by fighterbomber to be having issues with engine lifetime (due to the lower quality of soviet/post-soviet engines). So by moving onto western fighter jets they get access to more spare parts and missiles, especially active radar missiles of which they completely lacked a supply before hand.
Ukraine is losing territory steadily the last three months. And that rate is accelerating.
DeleteSortie rates for the VKS in Syrian War were high and the Russian Air Force is flying about 140 to 160 sorties a day in Ukraine. Anyone looking at UA Deep State Map would know Ukraine is losing territory. This not even in dispute. Ukraine doesn't have air superiority over the areas of contact - and also cannot knock out Russian air defenses - so they were always going to loose - by definition. It simply a matter of time at this point. American support of Ukraine was never in the US public interest and the now the election in the US simply underscores this point. We shall see what happen to US funding for Ukraine.
ReplyDelete