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Nov-21, 2024: There has been a major development in Ukraine. The Russians have used an all-new weapons system called "Oreshnik" in Ukraine in response to the US-operated ATACMS attack on Russian territory the day before. The new Russian weapon is a mobile ICBM with 36 kinetic MIRV warheads, that hit their targets at Mach 10. Social media video capture shows the weapon to be highly accurate. "Oreshnik" struck the huge Yuzhmash plant in Dnipro. Excellent independent analysis has appeared since the 21st.
Also, no Western anti-ballistic missile technology can handle this type of weapon. In Ukraine, thirty-two (32) Patriot launchers firing in salvos are required to try and hit just one (1) hypersonic Russian Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" missile."By comparison, German Patriot batteries have 16 launchers and Germany has 72 launchers in total." See link.
This gives Russia the conventional capacity to asymmetrically take out large area targets like NATO airbases - without using nuclear weapons. So this is a game-changer.
Some believe Oreshnik is based on the Russian R-30 Bulava.
The Russians have since warned that they will use "Oreshnik" again if provoked. Remember, only American personnel can operate ATACMS and supply targeting information to the system, so the attack on Russia by the US - is being seen by the Kremlin as an act of war.
Initial Western reporting of the Russians using the RS-24 ICBM was false.
[Above] Russian R-30 Bulava.
[Above] Russian RS-24
The US policy change to greenlight ATACMS firings into Russia proper occurred after the current Biden administration lost its re-election bid in November, and before the new administration takes office. Russia knows ATACMS targeting and employment can only be done by American personnel. This decision to attack Russia with US-crewed ATACMS is totally irresponsible and in our view, those in the administration responsible for the decision to attack Russia - should be arrested.
Another angle of the ICBM strike on Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine
We await further developments - however, we have long emphasized that wherever the West and NATO attempt at escalation - the Russians will simply counter and escalate in kind. This is exactly what has occurred. Continued involvement in Ukraine by the US-NATO is (was) always - a pointless exercise.
The Russians now have an asymmetric capability to counter NATO's keystone capability - its air basing - and therefore NATO air power.
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I only wished it were american crews launching ATACMS, especially as it was software locked, and being a truck with a missile launcher it is hardly as classified as say a fighter jet. Fighter jets which Russian pilots flew against the US in both the korean and vietnamese war, but since mig ally was not considered an escalation we should not consider the ATACMS one either.
ReplyDeleteRussians ICBM was a mirv using dummy warheads that failed to do any conventional damage, this looks like flailing panic in the face of Assad fleeing Aleppo.
First off it doesn't matter what you think or I think. I matters what the Russian think. Secondly targeting for ATACMS requires US control. 3rd Ukraine has been very tight lipped about damage at Yuzhmash. Our analysis is in very good company, see new links in post. Anti-Assad Jihadists in Syria will meet the same fate as before. See link: https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1863286646080147820
DeleteLol Russia is losing Damascus, it seems like the toothless bear isn't even a regional power any more.
DeleteIt seems pretty clear that the war in Ukraine has sapped Russia of it's power to project power meaningful anymore. If there is going to be a multipolar world order Russia won't be a part of it. Instead I predict Russia becoming the North Korea of europe or falling into civil war post-Putin.
Meh, Russian did couple of bombing runs in the the beginning, but stopped once it saw that the Syrian government was not resisting.
DeleteNow the second Syrian War will start
DeleteThe return of the bi-polar world has already occurred due to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and its continuing expansion.
DeleteFor now Russian militry bases in Syria will remain. https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1865820458760724825
DeleteBRICS isn't a Bi-polar world order, India and China are adversaries while Brazil isn't opposed to the western order meaningfully. And South Africa has to find a way to stop it's 'load-shedding' issues before it can be more than a regional power.
DeleteIf all those counrties are concerned about Pax Americana - which they are - then they are indeed an opposing "rebaliancing power-block" with nukes. Besides the West is no uniform bloc. We have serious issues with the Turks. Watch: https://youtu.be/oIiBY_u0vaw?si=jFDbF76fBVWxfY8i
DeleteYea but we don't have frequent border scuffles with people being killed regularly with Turkey like China and India do over the Himalayas. I think in time India will probably become more western aligned to combat China.
DeleteSouth Africa and Brazil are barely relevant geopolitically with both of them in serious economic decline.
Only Russia, China and Iran can be said to be an opposition and I'm skeptical of a post Putin Russia not falling into civil war or Iran having domestic issues, especially if Syria becomes a Turkish puppet and helps to contain them.
Then you need to ask yourself a question. Why would India agree to enter BRICS with China as a member? Border disputes doest negate what they perceive as too much US influence in the global system. The US has proven to be a poor steward of international system in the post-USSR era, after is began its imperial adventurism in the middle east with its 2003 invasion of Iraq. People realized they don't want to US and the center of the international system - so their building their own. And from a global population perspective BRICS is massive. This means these countries have the potential for economies larger than the US (economy size = population size).
DeleteExcept BRICS isn't particularily integrated with itself economically, it's a meme by investors to market funelling money into these economies.
DeleteChina is more economically tied to the US than with India or South Africa, it seems to me if major brics members are doing more business than the US than with each other, than BRICS has failed to pivot economically away from the US in any meaningful way.